Review of the Shemitah Year 5782 (2021–2022) as of August 30th, 2022
Refresher
A quick reminder of what the Shemitah year is for. It is a time for remission (debts/sins) or release. In ancient times, during the Shemitah year there was to be no working of the land. All sowing and reaping, all plowing and planting, all gathering and harvesting had to cease by the end of the sixth year. In modern times, this translates into economic downturns, dissipation of labor, employment, trade, etc. This might lead one to ask why a year designated for the remission of debts and sins now gives rise to nation’s financial crises. I believe the answer is found in every one of us.
“At the end of every seven years you shall grant a release of debts. And this is the form of the release: Every creditor who has lent anything to his neighbor shall release it; he shall not require it of his neighbor or his brother, because it is called the Lord’s release.” — Deuteronomy 15:1–2
“Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.” — Proverbs 16:18
“Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord, the people He has chosen as His own inheritance.” — Psalms 33:12
These verses characterize Shemitah years. I will expound upon this statement throughout this writing.
The Beginning and End of the Shemitah Years
The IMF’s world economic outlook report delineates the path that the global economy is headed for.
I chose this portion of the report because it is most pertinent to the topic at hand. Geopolitical tensions are crescendoing around the globe. Global food and energy crises are looming. Global financial conditions are tightening while the world teeters on the edge of a global recession. This is evidence that the Shemitah has already made its presence felt.
Starting on September 7th, 2021, this Shemitah year’s introduction was anticlimactic. The talk of the town was concerning China and more specifically, Evergrande and the real estate sector. There was a widespread fear that there could be contagion from the Evergrande fiasco. This fear, although it was widespread, fizzled out quickly. This Shemitah’s commencement was similar to the Shemitah year of 2014–2015, in which China appeared to be the focal point. China had become the new engine driving the global economy after the wake of The Great Recession, which America primarily contributed to. American hegemony is long gone. Many Westerners either completely overlook or trivialize China’s influence after the wake of The Great Recession. They played a pivotal role in America’s emergence from The Great Recession.
Now it appears that China may be switching positions with us this time around. Could China’s Evergrande contagion fiasco ultimately be the momentous event that adversely affects the global economy? If it was to occur now, it would be unexpected, as many have deemed it a nothingburger. We may not have to wait too long to find out. As the end of a Shemitah year approaches, it builds in intensity until reaching its peak at its end. On the Gregorian calendar, this is the time period from late summer to early autumn. On the Hebrew calendar, it corresponds to the month of Elul.
With the commencement of Elul, the time for self-reflection begins, while financial nullification and economic cessation begin the path to their crescendos. As the end of the seventh year Elul approaches, the financial nullification intensifies.
Elul commenced on the weekend of August 26th, 2022. The notable chairman of the Federal Reserve gave his most hawkish speech to-date at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, on August 26th. He fixated on restoring price stability and noted that with the restoration of price stability, there WILL be pain for households and businesses. A softening of the labor market (mass layoffs) and slower growth were also mentioned.
Before his speech was given, there were many market participants who believed that the Fed was most certainly going to pivot. This is the same crowd who has been conditioned to believe so over the course of past decade and a half by QE infinity. What Jerome Powell did last weekend was astonishing.
He unwittingly set the tone for not only the US financial markets but also the global economy going forward. This riveting speech given on August 26th, two days before the beginning of Elul (August 28th), captures the zeitgeist of the current global economy, in which financial conditions are becoming tighter. This leads me to believe that this movie is approaching its climax. I’m curious to see what happens during the remainder of Elul.
The end of Elul (nightfall of September 25th) marks the commencement of Tishri (September 26th), which most clearly manifests the Shemitah’s economic and financial repercussions. You can continue to see the repercussions into the next months of Heshvan, which begins October 26th, and onward. These dates are subject to change depending on the current year.
Human Nature
In prosperity let us most carefully avoid pride, disdain, and arrogance. — Marcus Tullius Cicero
The aforementioned invariable qualities of humans lead to these Shemitah years occurring as warnings instead of tranquil periods of release. As America progressed, Americans pride, disdain, arrogance, and egocentrism reached new heights. The bible warns about what pride will do to you. It goes before destruction. When a nation is abounded with pride you can be sure that its destruction is *almost* inevitable. I say almost because the Shemitah, which serve as warnings now because nations turn away from God and to themselves, is a sign in and of itself that there is still hope. If there were no more warnings, that would be symbolic of God’s grace leaving this nation for good. The warnings will continue to intensify as long as humans exhibit the same behavior.
Ancient Israel and America Have a Major Correspondence
Jonathan Cahn so eloquently describes this connection in his aforementioned book; The Mystery of the Shemitah. In this book he states that “It can be argued that only two civilizations in human history were established, dedicated, and consecrated to the will, the word, the purposes, and the glory of God from the moment of their conceptions. The first was Israel; the second was America.” He continues to expound on this statement. It may be a surprise to many, but the similarities are uncanny.
The fall of ancient Israel and the fall of America also turn out to be strikingly similar. The people of the respective nations turned away from God as prosperity rose. Both nations abandoned the God of their foundation. Though the situation may seem bleak, there is still hope for America. We must change as a nation if we don’t want to share the same fate as ancient Israel. We must get back to the ways of God, the foundation of this nation, so that the streets won’t ultimately be desolate. It is possible to restore this nation, but it will not be easy.
Final Thoughts
I previously wrote about the Shemitah (Shmita) years in December of 2021. If I could go back in time and revise a few things, here’s what I would change: the title. That’s it. Countless hours of research and studying markets enabled me to discern that it’s not history that repeats itself, it’s the people. Human nature does not change. By nature, humans are prideful, arrogant, and selfish. The Shemitah years accentuate human nature.
Fear not, for I am with you; be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, yes I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous right hand. — Isaiah 41:10
We are currently witnessing America’s fall from grace (it began many many years ago). There is ultimately nothing to be afraid of as long as you keep God at the center of your life. The world will continue to redefine what is right and wrong. You do not have to mindlessly accept this delusional transition. The people of nations around the globe are simultaneously unwittingly, and consciously turning away from God. If you keep his ways, you will be the minority, but you will be safe and have a sound mind in the midst of chaos.