Two’s a Coincidence, Three’s a Trend

April will be fun.

Quick little update ahead of CPI tomorrow. I know that everybody likes to say how “this is the biggest CPI of our lives, until the next one,” but once again, this one is truly significant.

Remember, Powell considered these last two prints to be “bumps in the road.” Three uncomfortable prints would call for some uncomfortable conversations.

So, positioning is stretched (understatement lol) & consequently the pain trade is down, but there’s no way to *know* what CPI will come in at. I’m leaning towards a hotter or a mixed/in-line print. Cold would surprise me tbh.

That being said, positioning for me is light into this. Was short QQQ from 444.87 and took most off around 438. Still short TLT from 94.60. Energy/cl positioning is the same as it was last time. If there’s any rally here into OpEx it is a gift if you’re looking to short imo.

Whether hot, cold, or in-line, I don’t think they’ll make it easy for anybody. Patience is key.